Trends in landslide occurrence in Nepal


In this paper, a database of landslide fatalities in Nepal has been compiled and analysed for the period 1978–2005. The database suggests that there is a high level of variability in the occurrence of landslides from year to year, but that the overall trend is upward. Analyses of the trends in the data suggest that there is a cyclicity in the occurrence of landslide fatalities that strongly mirrors the cyclicity observed in the SW (summer) monsoon in South Asia. Perhaps surprisingly the relationship is inverse, but this is explained through an inverse relationship between monsoon strength and the amount of precipitation in the Hill District areas of Nepal. It is also clear that in recent years the number of fatalities has increased dramatically over and above the effects of the monsoon cycle.




David N. Petley, Gareth J. Hearn, Andrew Hart Nicholas J. Rosser, Stuart A. Dunning, Katie Oven, Wishart A. Mitchell

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