Shedding light on avoided disasters: Measuring invisible benefits of disaster risk reduction using counterfactual probabilistic analysis
Summary
This working paper introduces probabilistic counterfactual analysis to quantify the lives saved by disaster risk reduction interventions, even when no disaster occurs. Using case studies, including a seismic retrofit program in Nepal, it shows how proactive DRR interventions can go unrecognized because “nothing happened,” making their benefits invisible. It calls for shifting evaluation from observed outcomes to potential ones, so that decision-makers are incentivized and credited for effective preventive action.
Categories:
Report
Published Year:
2022
