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Summary

The WMO El Niño/La Niña Update (August 2025) reports that ENSO-neutral conditions persisted across the tropical Pacific through mid-August, with sea surface temperatures near average and consistent atmospheric patterns. However, forecasts suggest an increasing likelihood of a transition to La Niña, with a 55% probability for September–November and about 60% for October–December 2025, while chances of ENSO-neutral conditions fall to 45–40%. The likelihood of El Niño emerging in 2025 is considered negligible. The report emphasizes that while ENSO strongly influences global climate, its effects vary by region and must be considered alongside other local climate drivers. WMO and partners will continue monitoring and issuing updated regional outlooks to support preparedness and risk management.