Communicating Complex Forecasts for Enhanced Early Warning in Nepal


Early warning systems play a crucial role in saving lives and enhancing resilience. Simple systems rely on real-time data and deterministic models for evacuation warnings, offering limited lead time. More advanced systems, supported by forecasts, including probabilistic ones, provide additional preparation time. However, challenges persist in effectively communicating complex warnings to at-risk individuals. Research in Nepal examined the existing early warning system, data and forecast utilization, information flow, dissemination methods, and decision-making processes for early action. The study assesses the impact of integrating complex forecasts into dissemination channels and decision support tools, aiming to improve early actions and enhance the resilience of flood-prone communities.


Journal, Report


Manuscript under review for journal Geosci. Community

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