This paper focuses on the use of community-based early warning systems for flood resilience in Nepal. The first part of the work outlines the evolution and current status of these community based systems, highlighting the limited lead times currently available for early warning. The second part of the paper focuses on the development of a robust operational flood forecasting methodology for use by the Nepal Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM) to enhance early warning lead times. The paper concludes with an assessment of the applicability of this approach; databased physically interpretable time series models and data assimilation to generate probabilistic forecasts, which are presented in a simple visual too in basins and countries beyond Karnali and Nepal and an overview of key lessons learnt from this initiative.
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences